Movies · resolved market
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6ce5238cdb19bc252807318d6ee55ee169daf95cad64bf96a1e9c57c115c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 76c | 2,376$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.52 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 54c | 2,180$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.56 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 1,664$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.74 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 16c | 1,600$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.66 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 66c | 1,455$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.28 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 14c | 1,414$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.52 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,339$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.57 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,075$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.77 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 68c | 1,023$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.28 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 28c | 999.98$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.79 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 30c | 917.74$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 54c | 749.94$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 10c | 654.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 10c | 652.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +479.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 16c | 613.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.07 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 22c | 596.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.47 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 20c | 552.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.85 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 28c | 542.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 21c | 540.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.98 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 14c | 470.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 69c | 449.3$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 12c | 419.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 389$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.08 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 8c | 364.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.66 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 21c | 297$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.77 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 20c | 293$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.72 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 71c | 285.15$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 13c | 275$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 273.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.62 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 9c | 248.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 5c | 239.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 79c | 217.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 21c | 214.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 8c | 183.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 15c | 169$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 153.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 147$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 58c | 140.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed Yes | 19c | 117.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 18c | 110.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 17c | 105$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 38c | 98.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 98.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 72.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…9d88backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…6412backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend?this page
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $23m or more but less than $26m opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $26m or more but less than $29m opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $32m or more opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.