Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9862c739820dd7705d6dd9779c0d9447112a1ca0c2678fa11fe819e7c05d9dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x521e…5739backed No | 38c | 30,657$11,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,649.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa14…5133backed Yes | 62c | 30,657$19,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,649.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked No | 0c | 14,703$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 6,545$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 38c | 2,279$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.87 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 63c | 2,200$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.03 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 36c | 1,359$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.82 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 42c | 1,197$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…beb4backed No | 38c | 879.12$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 59c | 677.78$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed No | 39c | 637$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 62c | 499.98$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 64c | 465.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 65c | 418.97$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed No | 36c | 280.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 37c | 266.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 62c | 240.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 64c | 220$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 62c | 218.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 62c | 210$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed No | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 66c | 198.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 57c | 191.36$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed No | 44c | 180.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 42c | 176.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 157$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 64c | 156.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 29c | 145$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…a88ebacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked No | 40c | 125.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 37c | 116.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 113.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 97.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…54e7backed No | 61c | 97.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…231abacked No | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…227abacked No | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…918abacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…30dbbacked Yes | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 62c | 79.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 36c | 58.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…9e07backed No | 34c | 57.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…51b0backed Yes | 71c | 56.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 55.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…e706backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…665bbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…c7bcbacked No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 63c | 39.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…28fabacked No | 40c | 37.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…c965backed Yes | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…9e9abacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…0162backed No | 41c | 27.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 54c | 27.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…68fdbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.