Movies · resolved market
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf00b4a25c3510d5715d0892585d8b1a5d806011ecd7da6a1cd29970060cedb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 12c | 3,302$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.22 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,401$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 2c | 2,367$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…8f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,017$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 25c | 1,361$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.49 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 12c | 1,360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…6f28backed Yes | 1c | 1,276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,138$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,086$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 18c | 827.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 19c | 699.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 11c | 660.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 652.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 646.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 576.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed Yes | 11c | 441.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 13c | 440.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 12c | 430.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 27c | 400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 399.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 399.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 349.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 342.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 217.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 18c | 170.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 169.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 10c | 149.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 74c | 133.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 120.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 10c | 106.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…797abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 37c | 46.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…27a4backed No | 67c | 44.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0998…7128backed No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…d74fbacked No | 74c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5.5m?this page
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m?No won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?Yes won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?No won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.