Movies · resolved market
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d947142c87d61e7adc23ca78b93f6788128364464e82227be702cfcc368790c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 5c | 6,361$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.75 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,646$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 11c | 3,989$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.17 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…58f1backed Yes | 1c | 3,467$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,688$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 2c | 2,597$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,899$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 11c | 1,577$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 4c | 1,457$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,175$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 8c | 1,107$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 903.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 825.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 811.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 803.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 766.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 762.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 10c | 661.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 12c | 597.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…5b90backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 3c | 431.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed Yes | 4c | 425.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 419.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 17c | 404.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 75c | 363.76$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 79c | 337.33$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…4509backed Yes | 7c | 185.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 12c | 155.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 7c | 155.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…6680backed Yes | 10c | 114.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 113.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…d74fbacked Yes | 12c | 96.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 73.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed No | 76c | 72.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 75c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…25c8backed No | 78c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?this page
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5.5m?No won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m?No won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?Yes won
- Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.