Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036ef8b9ac63f0a208f8507e19792b0cb5e73242bd4a18f1bee4369624b19861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 40c | 2,958$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.77 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,615$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.42 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.07 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…8329backed Yes | 4c | 941.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 15c | 914.58$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 748.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 5c | 610.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 559.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 31c | 554.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 20c | 531.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 19c | 498$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 27c | 478$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 73c | 478$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…8619backed Yes | 27c | 376.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 364.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 343.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 29c | 340.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 32c | 330$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 72c | 245.25$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 33c | 221.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 138.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 135.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 130.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 16c | 122.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 25c | 116.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 63c | 99.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 92.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 89.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 84.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 25c | 77.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…4509backed Yes | 16c | 74.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…57dcbacked Yes | 36c | 68.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 23c | 67.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…2a5cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…ea35backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 76c | 49.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 24c | 41.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 35c | 33.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 65c | 27.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…cc07backed No | 56c | 27.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 75c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.