Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668af789039bfa93f14dfa031e899ba1d9ce8ff24a79db15307faaf5ad471298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,271$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.65 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 15c | 1,498$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.32 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 20c | 1,284$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.63 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 3c | 937.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…50aebacked Yes | 1c | 924.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 908.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 25c | 600$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 542.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 517$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 15c | 510$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Yes | 3c | 386.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 79c | 358$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 7c | 343.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 332.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 298.73$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 12c | 255.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 8c | 214.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 21c | 191.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 105.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 13c | 102.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 91.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 74.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 73.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.