Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70273491f97e57f8afeacf10d78ca2589bda7338fd8c19611cb6d328f30e5398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf920…2febbacked No | 0c | 8,830$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 51c | 6,005$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.21 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 32c | 5,862$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.86 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 48c | 4,253$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.32 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 55c | 2,482$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.59 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 1c | 2,462$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,146$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 70c | 2,115$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.21 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 67c | 1,856$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.78 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 78c | 1,788$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.81 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 51c | 993$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 70c | 966.86$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 15c | 795.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 52c | 785.02$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 754.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89e…d36cbacked No | 12c | 715.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 22c | 601$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.17 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed No | 69c | 521.09$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.54 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 73c | 439.02$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.44 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 18c | 300.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 75c | 273.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 42c | 262.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 35c | 209.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 51c | 175.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 146.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…8329backed No | 14c | 134.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 127$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 126.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed Yes | 40c | 125.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 26c | 121.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 110.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 12c | 104.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 34c | 98.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 77c | 91.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed No | 64c | 88.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 84.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 80.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 32c | 74.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 79c | 73.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d2…0b8dbacked Yes | 78c | 71.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 74c | 70.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 65.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…880bbacked No | 71c | 61.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…ea32backed Yes | 44c | 60.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 31c | 58.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…ba33backed Yes | 37c | 47.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…0b8ebacked No | 68c | 41.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 37.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…a601backed No | 65c | 34.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa746…97b1backed Yes | 37c | 30.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842d…2ca5backed No | 65c | 29.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x235f…2f2bbacked No | 66c | 28.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…faebbacked No | 65c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 64c | 26.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…a74abacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.