Movies · resolved market
Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2963bb09ab46f12dc69165b4962cda21692f7af8d21fc31b3e6b865ad84458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 24c | 2,243$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.21 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 27c | 2,004$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.57 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,671$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,642$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.83 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 4c | 1,601$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 14c | 1,402$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 29c | 1,326$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.33 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 13c | 1,108$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 1,033$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 910.13$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 557.05$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 399.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 40c | 355$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 34c | 350.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 16c | 350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 79c | 328.32$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 325$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 311.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 285.54$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 269.87$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 246.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 31c | 204.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed Yes | 14c | 199.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 199$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 27c | 184.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 27c | 180.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 64c | 169.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 11c | 161$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 20c | 141.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 140.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 122.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 32c | 115.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 83.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 70.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 31c | 57.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 29c | 43.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 37.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 36.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…7e36backed Yes | 38c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 15m?this page
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12.5m?No won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?Yes won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.