Movies · resolved market
Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bade3a0f67d9161579ac6c58c4814969f1c4094a27f785e755bc142bcaa7b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 10c | 5,636$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.64 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 1c | 2,437$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 12c | 1,480$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 1,221$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 772.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 27c | 525$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 12c | 445.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 422.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 325.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 15c | 284.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 64c | 187.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 67c | 63.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12.5m?this page
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 15m?No won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?Yes won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.