Movies · resolved market
Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x735c3365946b254bdd0b25247721af22a8694f55fadbd7896f0bff16b034e6be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 6c | 6,795$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.71 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 63c | 6,675$4,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.16 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 39c | 5,590$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.88 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 64c | 3,497$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.54 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 69c | 1,707$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.14 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,584$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.16 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 1,533$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed No | 1c | 1,337$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 24c | 1,100$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 31c | 999.74$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 48c | 886.68$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.13 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 650.39$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.79 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 618$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 600$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 67c | 579.25$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 63c | 546.64$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.69 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 54c | 519.2$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.74 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 23c | 480.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 399.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 48c | 356.24$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 291.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 285.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 38c | 253.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 61c | 230$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 46c | 222$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 70c | 206.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 25c | 201.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 178.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 175$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 47c | 164.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 56c | 154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 33c | 143.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 139.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 136.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 75c | 124.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked No | 15c | 118.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 23c | 113.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 112.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 74c | 108.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…d32dbacked No | 50c | 79.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes | 46c | 74.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 72.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…6680backed Yes | 53c | 55.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…bd99backed Yes | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 62c | 48.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 59c | 43.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 46c | 40.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…9471backed Yes | 48c | 34.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 42c | 30.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +170.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 68c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…10eabacked No | 80c | 21.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…4307backed Yes | 58c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…7e36backed Yes | 74c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…1bd6backed Yes | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?this page
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12.5m?No won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 15m?No won
- Will "Send Help" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.