Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump endorse Conor McGregor for President of Ireland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c1c2c7819208fc90f9ccb6682e0c23cbe530639fb54ab37836e1a85d046bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,481$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 77c | 1,893$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 23c | 1,265$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.89 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 815.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 2c | 707.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 27c | 669.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 11c | 669$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 23c | 661.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 18c | 586.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…40dbbacked Yes | 4c | 411.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…f65ebacked Yes | 13c | 386.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes | 27c | 374.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 321.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 74c | 288.75$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…9cc4backed Yes | 17c | 262.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 143.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…c7b0backed Yes | 23c | 132.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 127.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 79c | 126.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed No | 75c | 119.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…06a3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…e060backed Yes | 24c | 43.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 67c | 35.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3472…d4f2backed No | 78c | 28.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 64c | 28.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed No | 71c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.