TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof KT Rolster, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,983,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,384,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,983,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 759 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17db…5f6dbacked KT Rolster63c140,262$87,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,325.394472.7%32 W · 12 L+7.3wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+38.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Top Esports51c81,219$41,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,617.2336433.8%123 W · 241 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8011…e98ebacked Top Esports55c68,658$37,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,923.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…5503backed KT Rolster36c57,159$20,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,476.261414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ce…9968backed Top Esports36c49,379$17,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,969.751369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed KT Rolster74c48,854$36,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,834.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed KT Rolster32c39,371$12,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,649.8811650%58 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Top Esports16c37,175$5,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,852.6218340.4%74 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked Top Esports68c32,940$22,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,399.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed KT Rolster35c32,825$11,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,475.942733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed Top Esports17c24,000$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,13017410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Top Esports57c22,809$12,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,913.23327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Top Esports68c19,738$13,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,322.923745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d59…d20fbacked Top Esports53c18,185$9,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,692.466045%27 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b8…cf0abacked KT Rolster29c17,633$5,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,462.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Top Esports67c16,000$10,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,719.9832350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Top Esports43c14,937$6,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,390.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Top Esports73c12,632$9,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,166.181060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb5…44dbbacked KT Rolster80c12,571$9,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f89…d508backed KT Rolster30c12,319$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,623.462965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Top Esports7c12,282$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.938624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Top Esports67c12,120$8,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,112.7925446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Top Esports35c12,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20054353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Top Esports38c11,540$4,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,342.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Top Esports65c11,112$7,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,212.8548742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6585…957bbacked Top Esports47c11,000$5,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1201520%3 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Top Esports5c10,360$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed KT Rolster66c10,034$6,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.499149.5%45 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f9…3950backed Top Esports70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0002123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed KT Rolster31c9,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,209.954546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x119b…5dc9backed Top Esports72c7,800$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,605.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…93d7backed Top Esports66c7,551$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.496467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Top Esports40c7,310$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.4821549.3%106 W · 109 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed KT Rolster32c7,129$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,820.9848448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…96a6backed Top Esports71c7,100$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebf…5f9abacked KT Rolster29c6,800$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,821.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+169.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Top Esports60c6,553$3,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90320151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd1…a192backed Top Esports71c6,400$4,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,543.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Top Esports50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Top Esports70c6,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Top Esports55c5,975$3,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27121144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Top Esports34c5,933$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.322934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked KT Rolster37c5,729$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,606.944928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb3…7617backed Top Esports28c5,655$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.321650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked Top Esports17c5,648$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.788728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Top Esports40c5,529$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.8435431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Top Esports67c5,280$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.9651160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed Top Esports68c4,716$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.2537660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed KT Rolster44c4,663$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.5614056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed KT Rolster31c4,652$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.257346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…35e2backed KT Rolster65c4,599$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Top Esports66c4,310$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.412338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…cd44backed Top Esports48c4,278$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked Top Esports5c4,187$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.062924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Top Esports32c4,178$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.3441752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa326…4556backed Top Esports61c4,030$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4762572%18 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd1…8cadbacked KT Rolster65c3,831$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.652441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3601…cd3fbacked KT Rolster33c3,675$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.5512451.6%64 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cac…610ebacked KT Rolster54c3,633$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.443119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Top Esports26c3,550$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93814425%36 W · 108 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked KT Rolster34c3,530$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.718756.3%49 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Top Esports53c3,500$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87016439.6%65 W · 99 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked KT Rolster65c3,492$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.432166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9886…6856backed Top Esports51c3,457$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.121520%3 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa429…792bbacked KT Rolster30c3,341$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.653966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Top Esports71c3,099$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2003351.5%17 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-26%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7795…d2b9backed Top Esports39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1701656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25a9…7076backed KT Rolster37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89016844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Top Esports70c3,000$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.972236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd965…c391backed Top Esports3c2,960$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.54520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Top Esports38c2,955$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.5931661.7%195 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed KT Rolster29c2,842$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.413,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Top Esports54c2,842$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.7710250%51 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Top Esports52c2,792$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.363525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17fe…fa4fbacked Top Esports37c2,705$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe82…b084backed Top Esports72c2,700$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Top Esports70c2,580$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.526942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f3…9576backed Top Esports69c2,537$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.361838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d6d…e803backed Top Esports23c2,488$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.474339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84c…d40cbacked KT Rolster29c2,453$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.735166.7%34 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked KT Rolster32c2,389$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.2313243.9%58 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Top Esports11c2,333$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd116…be32backed Top Esports38c2,330$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.011050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2343…6f72backed KT Rolster34c2,315$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Top Esports69c2,250$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.9957945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked KT Rolster70c2,218$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.072479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51d3…1719backed Top Esports55c2,195$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.85242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c2…51f9backed KT Rolster33c2,142$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick28cpaid+76.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…51ddbacked Top Esports23c2,130$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4919748.5%47 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f45…12f0backed KT Rolster46c2,124$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4db9backed Top Esports5c2,066$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.24825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…caa4backed KT Rolster31c2,010$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f5…a301backed Top Esports69c2,010$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Top Esports40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002850%14 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8229…dfbfbacked KT Rolster32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3607444.6%33 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c1…2727backed Top Esports70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.993847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed KT Rolster33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9924240.9%99 W · 143 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Top Esports67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9226360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…e4cfbacked KT Rolster67c1,984$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.852142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked KT Rolster30c1,965$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.7311548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.