Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iraq by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9a569e48c0dfb201b264d12381ca4be90e89fa304749935297284309a44d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 8c | 35,375$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 34,698$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.02 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 18,248$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 7c | 4,868$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.76 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…2554backed Yes | 5c | 4,181$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,634$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 2,782$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.51 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,479$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 11c | 2,189$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,108$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 2,023$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,902$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,447$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 1,343$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 11c | 1,286$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…2cf5backed Yes | 6c | 1,214$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 12c | 1,033$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…15a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,014$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 997.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 994.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…40b5backed Yes | 2c | 789.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…b260backed Yes | 3c | 772.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 728.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…a626backed Yes | 12c | 701.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 566.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…6cc3backed Yes | 18c | 551.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 6c | 490$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 7c | 457.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 16c | 432.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 14c | 348$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 7c | 328.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 11c | 224.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a3…00bebacked Yes | 8c | 193.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…5d84backed Yes | 8c | 186.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…cf4cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb09…0395backed Yes | 15c | 99.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 12c | 85.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.