Us Politics · resolved market
Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd06c12e1df58c6a6587686ff8b6aa6ff742963db2b0705da667e08c016f4b7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e68…5472backed Yes | 71c | 3,295$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 18c | 2,100$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.96 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…4fb9backed Yes | 77c | 1,843$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,754$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.9 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 1,407$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 21c | 1,380$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.23 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 7c | 1,326$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 1c | 1,034$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 20c | 948$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 25c | 663.09$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 78c | 651$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 30c | 617.06$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked No | 19c | 388.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…1138backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 20c | 333.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 16c | 290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 34c | 279.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 65c | 219.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 28c | 211$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 67c | 208.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 144.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 79c | 126.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 30c | 84.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 27c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Adrienne Adams finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Scott Stringer finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.