Us Politics · resolved market
Will Adrienne Adams finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4272cb8540ca0012d0ee7fce11a6cf8fe8da77e27db9c497310d800025f21b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 18c | 3,612$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.27 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 20c | 3,607$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.88 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 16c | 2,029$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e68…5472backed No | 75c | 1,360$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 20c | 893.43$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.01 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 22c | 852.32$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 18c | 834.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 647.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 20c | 483$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 385.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 23c | 351.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 346.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 24c | 321$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…5f15backed No | 73c | 316.62$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 20c | 272.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 25c | 267.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 75c | 232.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 25c | 222$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 18c | 206$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 21c | 180.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 75c | 131.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 77c | 124.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 77c | 100.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 22c | 92.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 19c | 88.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 80.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adrienne Adams finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will Scott Stringer finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.