World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party (Ap) win 27% or more of vote in Norwegian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e83dae50ecabbbdae3c1c71d6922071c5c7457b8c3ab6df2c60b34ca856230d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 59c | 3,367$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.4 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 41c | 2,998$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.3 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed No | 42c | 712.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 41c | 420$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196f…538fbacked No | 48c | 416.14$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 69c | 350$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 56c | 311.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 299.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 182.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 69c | 72.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…7730backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…5a31backed Yes | 39c | 38.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 59c | 32.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…ec42backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…76aabacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 44c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…5679backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.