Fed Rates · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03e287eca845034b42d65b58fb75fe1a9d4c5e655a2720525391e910cca884f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 0c | 8,674$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 4,931$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 32c | 1,596$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.62 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69e…bce4backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 806.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 11c | 612.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 54c | 463$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 372.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 287.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 63c | 264.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 31c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 43c | 232$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 7c | 180.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 70c | 141.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 42c | 103.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 57c | 101.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 100.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 72c | 95.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 76c | 92.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 46c | 78.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 71c | 71.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 49c | 68.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 42c | 61.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 66c | 61.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6843…e2d5backed Yes | 48c | 51.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed Yes | 57c | 40.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 62c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.