TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,767 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes4c34,432$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.643619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes6c5,655$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.1715125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes20c5,150$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,713$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes13c4,685$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.5290%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes11c4,178$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7126238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c3,063$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.831811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes16c3,006$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.0823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes9c2,696$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.351612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3427…7977backed Yes19c2,566$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes18c2,200$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3984420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes1c2,004$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0613230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes14c1,975$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes2c1,819$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.882711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes2c1,732$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.262321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes20c1,527$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.779734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…e2a9backed Yes15c1,318$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.171338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes12c1,306$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No80c1,298$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes17c1,260$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.32924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…3197backed Yes24c1,250$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No77c1,199$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes8c1,100$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes16c1,094$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.219037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c1,084$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes9c1,018$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…e674backed Yes19c835.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.62650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes21c835.24$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.76317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No80c788.63$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.838652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes6c785.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1413429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa852…1edcbacked Yes15c726.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No74c699.99$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cc…e2f1backed Yes10c691.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac3…e93bbacked Yes7c626.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c622.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.445327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a48…7bc7backed Yes2c609.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No78c507.58$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.747241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x810c…0a4fbacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes7c495.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.036336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c78…5468backed Yes4c452.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes15c438.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.268045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No78c437.67$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.468337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes12c417.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32205%1 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-86.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes3c323$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes6c299$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…1046backed Yes23c258.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a7…4453backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f25…b14cbacked Yes15c249.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2432…ae39backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes23c220.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No75c218.53$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.195352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d2…7f8fbacked Yes16c202.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x641e…aeb7backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402040%8 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes16c199.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes14c179$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.068936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cde…67d0backed Yes17c144.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes21c144.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes10c127.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f00…40c3backed Yes25c118.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c110.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5437…7e5abacked Yes13c106.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae0f…40f9backed Yes17c101.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-60.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ccb…3135backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No80c94.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.169475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No80c90.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.025843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2395…6154backed Yes19c79.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes17c66.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.972825%7 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No78c63.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes25c59.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9311530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f2…9682backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No80c40.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1314239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ba8…8b32backed No76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1911…d8d1backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.