Weather · resolved market
Megaquake in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefae99718c85b79809ba87c02d60ebd97fc6727f2f0f1d07350ee4739139ad4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 3c | 37,351$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.28 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 5c | 11,110$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 8,027$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.13 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 4,784$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,642$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 5c | 3,013$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,887$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 4c | 2,700$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,290$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,090$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,989$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…25cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,808$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,642$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 4c | 1,574$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,394$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…2d33backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 2c | 885.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +407%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 4c | 853.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 653.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 6c | 642.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 465.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 404.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 5c | 358.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 283.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 4c | 282.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 5c | 240.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…e2f1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.