Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aab2900909fe6e59da6fc98aa3caaf82271cc61acc3b669e70515cfac9db81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 6c | 3,733$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,497$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,423$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 17c | 2,088$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,051$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,859$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 1,513$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…8887backed Yes | 12c | 861.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 641.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 547.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…f3eebacked Yes | 21c | 510$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…21debacked Yes | 13c | 436.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…2780backed Yes | 10c | 305.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…e771backed Yes | 10c | 162.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 12c | 161.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 126.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a1d6backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.