Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73731d4d025e2465a0c4b88a5ef85c60a0d014e033d3dff4057fb657ce5f1366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 6,807$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.58 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 8c | 2,594$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 14c | 2,237$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,228$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 2,090$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.74 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,958$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,683$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,440$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.14 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 25c | 1,072$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 27c | 1,043$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.78 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 21c | 999.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…30e3backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 5c | 973.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 7c | 887.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 850$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 11c | 827.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 10c | 806.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 19c | 767.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 23c | 602$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 594.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 16c | 579.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 12c | 524.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked No | 77c | 423.6$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 26c | 383$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 15c | 367.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 27c | 365.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 6c | 310.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 26c | 298.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 75c | 277.09$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…1c5bbacked No | 72c | 138.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 20c | 96.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…4e3bbacked No | 77c | 93.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…90f4backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de9…ca15backed Yes | 23c | 88.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…43e4backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…954fbacked No | 80c | 57.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f6…8d90backed No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…614cbacked No | 77c | 31.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…e7c1backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…6085backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.