Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel annex Gazan territory before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5400e3dff0da3a92bccb4eed904376038bec2753d2e3712d08d39605ac03376a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 6c | 9,226$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.2 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,549$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,355$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 11c | 3,153$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.53 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 2,902$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…c815backed Yes | 4c | 2,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,490$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 8c | 2,319$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 11c | 2,305$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,205$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 2,089$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 13c | 2,012$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,830$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 1,802$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1c…1bb7backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 1,427$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed Yes | 6c | 1,219$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,196$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 13c | 1,163$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,140$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,021$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 6c | 1,004$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 999.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 10c | 909.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 6c | 903.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 11c | 896$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…e53bbacked Yes | 13c | 884.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 4c | 883.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 8c | 880.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0933…6515backed Yes | 6c | 867.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 5c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 8c | 781.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…1ccabacked Yes | 6c | 777.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 754.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…13eebacked Yes | 7c | 670.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 4c | 641.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…c32abacked Yes | 6c | 630.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…b32abacked Yes | 11c | 591.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc522…fbc3backed Yes | 12c | 589$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…3fabbacked Yes | 3c | 580.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…c296backed Yes | 4c | 544.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…d18dbacked Yes | 9c | 543.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 8c | 518.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 512.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 488.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 2c | 470.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…104fbacked Yes | 4c | 408.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…e937backed Yes | 5c | 405.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 8c | 378.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 6c | 375$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 15c | 361$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed Yes | 3c | 349.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 5c | 347.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Yes | 8c | 325.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 6c | 322.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4455backed Yes | 9c | 300.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 9c | 298.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 296.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 294.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…4efcbacked Yes | 7c | 291.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…dc16backed Yes | 6c | 280.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 13c | 275.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…9498backed Yes | 8c | 246.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 8c | 246.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 227$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…3c2abacked Yes | 7c | 225.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…c7c6backed Yes | 6c | 198.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…4fa6backed Yes | 7c | 197.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 11c | 135.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…359dbacked Yes | 8c | 125.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…e969backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 11c | 97.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.