Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e74aefb646f6f5af0091ed3d3ff46439914853346d5851a0517775d3ae9343c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69b1…1ea7backed Yes | 21c | 64,235$13,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,489.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…26cebacked No | 79c | 64,135$50,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,468.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 72c | 13,970$10,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…3b62backed No | 67c | 12,293$8,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 32c | 10,734$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 31c | 5,306$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…4735backed Yes | 3c | 3,806$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed Yes | 18c | 3,600$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 69c | 3,309$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.23 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 76c | 3,074$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.05 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 71c | 2,960$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.93 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…51abbacked Yes | 22c | 2,939$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 2,795$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.18 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 2,378$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.5 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 33c | 2,227$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.7 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,059$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.07 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 1,953$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.62 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,361$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 30c | 1,328$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 991.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Yes | 32c | 947.37$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…1066backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…f277backed Yes | 31c | 810$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 32c | 686.7$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…1025backed Yes | 7c | 682$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes | 32c | 620.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 578$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…6b01backed Yes | 5c | 539.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fda…5e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 500.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked Yes | 4c | 479.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 72c | 463.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 22c | 454.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 22c | 435$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 421.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 369.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 31c | 265.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 75c | 249.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed No | 74c | 238.3$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 27c | 230.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 32c | 223.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 32c | 192.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb105…2521backed Yes | 30c | 188.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 30c | 136.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…ac8dbacked Yes | 8c | 135.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 40c | 119$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 30c | 101.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 96.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 27c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 69c | 79.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…aeddbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf6…88d3backed Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…6841backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…f0d8backed Yes | 20c | 65.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…7a42backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…38b1backed Yes | 32c | 59.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 33c | 58.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 56.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 29c | 51.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…77f1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…9925backed No | 78c | 49.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c73cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…46c8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…00a4backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked No | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.