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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69b1…1ea7backed Yes21c64,235$13,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,489.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11ea…26cebacked No79c64,135$50,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,468.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No72c13,970$10,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,861.128450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7fd6…3b62backed No67c12,293$8,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes32c10,734$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4002055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes31c5,306$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff88…4735backed Yes3c3,806$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada8…a347backed Yes18c3,600$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.031250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No69c3,309$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.2311419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No76c3,074$2,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.057254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No71c2,960$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.9315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf935…51abbacked Yes22c2,939$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c2,795$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.1869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes30c2,378$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes33c2,227$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.72020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c2,059$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes18c1,953$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes32c1,563$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002119%4 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes23c1,361$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.493925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes30c1,328$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,319$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.363989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes3c991.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6913029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e41…5932backed Yes32c947.37$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.031040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f32…1066backed Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c1c…f277backed Yes31c810$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c750$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes32c686.7$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.74296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x914f…1025backed Yes7c682$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes32c620.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.561910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes15c578$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.711347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcff8…6b01backed Yes5c539.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fda…5e7bbacked Yes4c500.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8083…4a0bbacked Yes4c479.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No72c463.99$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8311940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes22c454.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+107.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes22c435$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c421.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes21c369.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xced2…1076backed No70c357.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.142360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9318745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes31c265.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.394332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No75c249.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.54736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f2…51a1backed No74c238.3$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes27c230.55$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.12133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed Yes32c223.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.542931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes32c192.01$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.446625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb105…2521backed Yes30c188.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabe9…09b5backed Yes30c136.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.053721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1940…ac8dbacked Yes8c135.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes28c120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+94.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes40c119$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.222641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes30c101.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.35220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1039522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.514819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c96.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.961,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes27c84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed No69c79.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.84630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460b…aeddbacked No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf6…88d3backed Yes32c68.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…6841backed Yes31c67.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0584…f0d8backed Yes20c65.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe06…7a42backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5628636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb37…38b1backed Yes32c59.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes33c58.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1417021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes21c56.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.843859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…3848backed Yes29c51.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f7e…77f1backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0895…9925backed No78c49.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d10…dca1backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c2…c73cbacked Yes30c39.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb7b…46c8backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1940…00a4backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.575966.1%39 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked No71c23.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.943030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.811854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.