Ukraine · resolved market
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f7f64fe7a53c477d35a123fba1f8e6956bdfd22741b037db6081b116c3eb0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 9c | 7,848$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.62 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 16c | 3,085$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.61 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,793$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.09 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 12c | 2,447$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,398$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 5c | 2,305$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed Yes | 4c | 2,137$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.24 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 8c | 1,176$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 15c | 1,136$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 7c | 939$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 18c | 900$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 869.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 566.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 31c | 339.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 9c | 315.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…dbd0backed Yes | 7c | 305.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 261.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 21c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 70c | 219.72$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 218.85$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 15c | 211.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…a499backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 17c | 143.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…89f2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…c453backed Yes | 11c | 100.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…64ecbacked Yes | 35c | 99.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 94.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 30c | 67.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 71c | 54.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 46.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 30c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…c213backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.