TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6c3…1fb7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$17.02
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.78
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.13
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$52.39
Mavericks vs. Pacersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.64
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$59.2
Wizards vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$73.57
Spurs vs. Hawksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+61.3%+$38.59
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$42.2
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+88.7%+$52.99
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+96.1%+$65.84
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+92.3%+$40.36
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+69.5%+$27.21
Spurs vs. Pacersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+143.9%+$36.81
Heat vs. Trail Blazersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+61.3%+$6.71
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$13.91
All 16 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lightning vs. Starsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+100%+$59.16
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$49.26
Senators vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+69.5%+$40.94
Hurricanes vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+122.2%+$57.57
Canadiens vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+112.8%+$67.64
Rangers vs. Bruinsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$58.73
Kings vs. Lightningbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$46.31
Stars vs. Golden Knightsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+108.3%+$45.83
Canucks vs. Bluesbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+122.2%+$63
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+104.1%+$32.17
Canucks vs. Hurricanesbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.76
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+36.8%+$133.01
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38.39
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+88.7%+$60.17
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Braves vs. Metsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$66.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$74.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.