TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Kings vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Kings, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40e3…0787backed Kings15c8,082$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.5632331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ad…211bbacked Kings37c5,200$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked Lightning65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4008950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning69c1,834$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.21,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Lightning56c1,350$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.9531849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d1…2361backed Kings43c1,265$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc4…ff28backed Kings43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…0c06backed Kings43c1,153$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Kings38c1,124$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1229847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Kings42c1,110$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-40.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Kings43c1,087$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.7535545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning67c1,083$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.885464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03b4…af9abacked Lightning58c1,070$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.791361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x769f…d2c2backed Lightning62c1,068$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920a…77e0backed Kings39c1,067$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning56c1,018$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.9175155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kings35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Lightning55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45014949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Kings42c991.14$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.652245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f28…92fabacked Lightning57c912.01$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Lightning59c884.52$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.015450%27 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2558…dfcbbacked Lightning57c841.83$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35af…4655backed Kings23c789.04$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.482065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Kings42c785.41$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.8797651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24db…5766backed Lightning57c664$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Kings23c652.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb30…2af5backed Kings44c605$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Lightning59c576.27$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2710658.5%62 W · 44 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac7…206abacked Lightning60c559.37$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.371154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning57c522.72$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.541,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked Lightning59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2056149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kings42c401.33$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5679251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Kings41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1648537.6%32 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf482…d3c3backed Kings21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8885…1674backed Lightning57c374.46$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdede…149ebacked Lightning59c357.41$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.413161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Kings29c350$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Lightning64c343.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7513457.5%77 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8189…7b6ebacked Kings43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Kings42c293.07$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4272444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Kings44c276.3$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5722246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Lightning77c236.91$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.061040%4 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-44.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f69…f762backed Lightning58c234.48$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning58c234.37$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6884051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d8…a7c8backed Kings44c234.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…e2f5backed Kings44c234.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2e…30c9backed Lightning58c233.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…16bfbacked Kings43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60f3…7a42backed Lightning58c231.9$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea27…9b92backed Kings44c231.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3efd…cde3backed Kings44c231.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc68…4183backed Kings44c231.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…8495backed Kings44c231.82$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e7…7a67backed Lightning58c231.79$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeacb…8204backed Lightning58c231.03$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb12a…efdcbacked Lightning58c231.03$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc51…dcdabacked Kings44c224.55$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Lightning64c218.75$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7512859.4%76 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Kings42c212.5$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.256144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning56c204.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.781,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Lightning64c203.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1315456.5%87 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Kings42c178.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1860549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2235…d67fbacked Lightning58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.417062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0283…5dc7backed Kings43c165.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Kings42c157.79$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2748149.3%237 W · 244 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9596…f5bfbacked Kings43c151.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…ed01backed Lightning57c136.04$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Lightning80c133.73$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.752441.7%10 W · 14 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-26.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Kings13c131$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5342144.4%187 W · 234 L-28.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6ac…957dbacked Lightning57c128.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.364650%23 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…aa79backed Kings43c124.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.73423.5%8 W · 26 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-55.5%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1398…9329backed Kings42c123.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0808…099cbacked Kings42c118.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5980…a3e6backed Lightning59c116.1$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.782846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb9…ee09backed Lightning59c115.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.181464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c94…1e9dbacked Lightning59c111.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e87…a5b0backed Lightning57c110.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.571968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6c3…1fb7backed Kings42c110.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.311163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…be67backed Lightning59c109.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.021637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Kings43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Kings43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4545954.2%249 W · 210 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…3b5fbacked Kings42c102.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.082040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b9…ad6ebacked Kings44c102.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ab…fc79backed Kings42c100.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.252458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Kings41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4127643.5%120 W · 156 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7a…34ebbacked Lightning59c98.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.42356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Kings41c97.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4192848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe79d…650dbacked Kings41c93.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7a…dc19backed Lightning57c90.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+66.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef1…7c5fbacked Lightning60c90.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.17875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed Lightning62c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.817054.7%93 W · 77 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…0536backed Lightning59c88.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358a…6d19backed Lightning60c88.05$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.22785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bf…46d7backed Kings41c87.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…9be3backed Lightning59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.752842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x564d…aef1backed Lightning60c84.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f10…60a7backed Lightning60c79.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+71%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9959…0d51backed Lightning60c79.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c57…8fb0backed Lightning59c78.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+80.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.