TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Senators, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40e3…0787backed Senators15c6,140$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.4132331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Lightning79c5,053$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.826163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcee5…73c6backed Senators41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df6…bb77backed Lightning59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Senators35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70022842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning58c1,847$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.921,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63d…9dd6backed Lightning59c1,202$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.821782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xce13…a213backed Senators41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4921650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Senators1c1,040$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88720.7%18 W · 69 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Senators25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502528%7 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Senators41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Lightning65c900.82$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.296465.6%42 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning59c890.83$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.2492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945e…2acabacked Lightning74c811.62$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.028950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Senators42c736.29$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3823761.6%146 W · 91 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning59c686.9$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.6375155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Senators11c527.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.533,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Senators40c499.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.968537.6%32 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Senators42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013457.5%77 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb174…d896backed Senators42c432.58$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2105…64adbacked Lightning59c429.52$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.524252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Senators40c340.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1731849.4%157 W · 161 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lightning59c334.96$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3372847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Senators41c288.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1520345.3%92 W · 111 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Senators42c285.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015456.5%87 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Senators42c285.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012859.4%76 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Lightning59c285.36$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1179459.6%56 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Senators41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Senators42c239.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193d…2eb4backed Senators42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004330.2%13 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Lightning58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849553.7%51 W · 44 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a1d…0cbbbacked Lightning59c163$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dfe…9213backed Senators41c163$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Lightning59c149.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.089251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b1c…18e9backed Senators42c147.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ce…b4e3backed Senators43c138.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.46825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x950d…d965backed Senators42c135.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.212152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning58c133.86$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9284051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7441…233cbacked Lightning59c131$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29fc…e36cbacked Senators41c131$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Senators41c121.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…4641backed Senators41c121.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502931%9 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Senators42c120.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed Lightning77c119.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…16bfbacked Lightning60c116.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.673661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36da…aa79backed Senators41c116.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483423.5%8 W · 26 L-8.5wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-55.5%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1733…d96fbacked Senators42c114.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.062433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning58c113.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6649351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce7…baa8backed Lightning59c111.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.64850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…c359backed Senators41c109.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f4…e5f6backed Lightning59c108$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.281637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2424…2751backed Lightning60c107.45$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb5…eb0abacked Lightning60c107.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.972254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc2…61d3backed Senators41c106.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.481040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Lightning58c106.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5413756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Senators24c105.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4372448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x706d…0f3cbacked Senators42c105.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.461942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e2…6c2ebacked Lightning59c105.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.221844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e87…a5b0backed Senators41c105.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.161968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning77c102.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.551,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe53…b190backed Lightning60c101.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1f…0227backed Lightning59c100.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.172462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Senators20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e1…5392backed Senators22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe34…6839backed Lightning78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Lightning59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4150049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7554349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c3…1fb7backed Lightning59c99.85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.941163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd4e…510cbacked Lightning59c97.61$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.021241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8d…c769backed Lightning59c97.51$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.981050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5980…a3e6backed Senators41c95.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.282846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeba7…f213backed Lightning60c95.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.22352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Senators15c94.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf112…6bdabacked Senators41c90.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…1282backed Lightning60c87.82$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.131729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b00…a87dbacked Lightning59c77.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…d2e8backed Senators42c76.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning59c76.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6272444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x280e…a392backed Senators42c76.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ab…fd2dbacked Senators42c74.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789f…9a70backed Lightning59c74.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x349b…5a5bbacked Lightning59c74.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e42…37d4backed Lightning60c72.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ac…6e6ebacked Senators42c71.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5d…06c8backed Senators42c70.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d8…9a77backed Lightning64c70.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.337861.5%48 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…1bd2backed Lightning60c70.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…b387backed Lightning60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e5…be51backed Lightning58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd3…f11cbacked Senators42c66.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.031546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df7…94d6backed Lightning77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d3…2425backed Lightning59c60.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Senators41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd216…d911backed Senators41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x235d…315dbacked Senators42c60.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Senators42c59.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519852.5%104 W · 94 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf78d…8e3ebacked Lightning59c59.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb1…dd7abacked Lightning59c59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.