Token Launches · resolved market
Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9915fda4386b321d315a61bffd2cd7306549e21cbb969f14d5976e6540c245d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 152,210$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.43 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc496…35b7backed Yes | 0c | 95,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…4da7backed Yes | 0c | 76,696$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 1c | 10,811$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 8,405$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.06 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 15c | 8,207$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 5,531$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.75 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…38c1backed Yes | 20c | 4,822$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 4,585$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.01 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e28…1b42backed Yes | 13c | 4,464$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…7d42backed Yes | 6c | 4,032$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…3db9backed Yes | 3c | 3,537$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…0406backed Yes | 11c | 3,501$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…f871backed Yes | 4c | 3,307$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a57backed Yes | 12c | 3,108$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…42f0backed Yes | 6c | 2,916$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 13c | 2,489$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 2,020$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 28c | 1,703$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,269$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…a994backed Yes | 9c | 1,086$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 13c | 901.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 11c | 850$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 524$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…47c7backed Yes | 10c | 520.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 11c | 370.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…8cb0backed Yes | 20c | 365.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5e…4553backed Yes | 19c | 355.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0286backed Yes | 6c | 350.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 4c | 264.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…825fbacked Yes | 11c | 226.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…f7fdbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fc…3264backed Yes | 8c | 154.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…7ef2backed Yes | 19c | 150.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…64a9backed Yes | 14c | 142.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…bb9ebacked Yes | 10c | 132.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…b4e6backed Yes | 8c | 129.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…ebd2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…2b65backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…9f04backed Yes | 15c | 81.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbd…dd1bbacked Yes | 39c | 77.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…d2a7backed No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?this page
- Will BILLY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will DADDY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will MOTHER be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?Yes won
- Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.