Token Launches · resolved market
Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x081a3af89aac47acfee404ab036363915ec8a86bd0f777d185fa52ac7b346a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed No | 3c | 18,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…824fbacked No | 0c | 13,920$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 72c | 6,634$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 17c | 4,488$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…949dbacked No | 17c | 4,234$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 76c | 4,106$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.08 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 75c | 2,820$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…8917backed Yes | 62c | 2,691$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 30c | 1,700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 23c | 1,662$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 69c | 1,583$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 1,479$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.02 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…dcd2backed Yes | 72c | 1,413$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a57backed Yes | 58c | 1,367$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.31 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 963.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…7cdabacked Yes | 73c | 836.23$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 12c | 805.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a9…a77abacked Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd516…0059backed No | 28c | 694.44$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 74c | 691.86$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…386bbacked Yes | 57c | 624.71$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb839…5885backed Yes | 75c | 558.66$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083d…4d61backed Yes | 71c | 519.7$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 73c | 473.37$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 18c | 466.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 79c | 372.75$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 64c | 355.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 21c | 328.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…1fc4backed Yes | 65c | 297.14$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…e7a2backed Yes | 71c | 281.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…823cbacked Yes | 79c | 270.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 78c | 268.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed8…5bc6backed No | 35c | 260$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Yes | 77c | 236.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 72c | 230.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed No | 29c | 192.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9313…9140backed Yes | 63c | 155.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…9fe8backed Yes | 77c | 139.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…6900backed Yes | 79c | 121.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 72c | 76.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…a3f8backed Yes | 76c | 59.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…dd86backed No | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…9840backed No | 26c | 52.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…58bfbacked No | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…60e1backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…d9babacked Yes | 76c | 48.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 33c | 48.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…25e1backed Yes | 72c | 37.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…e20fbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…58d1backed Yes | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…2b65backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…81b0backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed Yes | 73c | 28.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…f1d8backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…c30cbacked Yes | 74c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…3439backed Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…1fbebacked Yes | 73c | 23.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…6ab9backed Yes | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…2ab1backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 73c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked Yes | 80c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…ef78backed Yes | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…90bcbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…b135backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…114cbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…4ecebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…508ebacked Yes | 73c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b78…8509backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?this page
- Will BILLY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will DADDY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will MOTHER be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.