Token Launches · resolved market
Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf520800df2cec69c45ff6ac0b4fbc4734e0aa0fbf70b73d7a79584625163401e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 104,707$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 12,668$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.53 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 10,569$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 7,404$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0286backed Yes | 2c | 6,234$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,213$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 4c | 4,890$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…0b30backed Yes | 3c | 4,595$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,827$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…f871backed Yes | 3c | 2,438$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…240cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,918$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,489$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Yes | 3c | 1,487$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed Yes | 5c | 1,322$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 2c | 1,223$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e31…e92bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,074$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…f7fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed Yes | 6c | 864.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…8fcabacked Yes | 7c | 728.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed Yes | 5c | 657.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…96f6backed Yes | 5c | 498$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…8a2abacked Yes | 21c | 476.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…e348backed Yes | 5c | 433.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 5c | 407.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…0f5ebacked Yes | 5c | 385.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…2842backed Yes | 6c | 332.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…ae78backed Yes | 4c | 305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…f6f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 4c | 278.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?this page
- Will BILLY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will DADDY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will MOTHER be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.