Token Launches · resolved market
Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1a20d140508fe52a2cb0fbb24fec1a8e6db553bc713c9dbe67fbd49c9df91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $321,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc496…35b7backed Yes | 0c | 95,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 59,442$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.58 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 17,219$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.46 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 13,593$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 10,436$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…a994backed Yes | 11c | 4,706$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 15c | 3,812$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,681$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.23 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 5c | 2,510$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 2,368$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0854…3f0fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…384dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,932$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…40cabacked Yes | 19c | 1,740$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 1,563$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb554…c309backed Yes | 6c | 1,330$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,257$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…4bc5backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…b883backed Yes | 9c | 1,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Yes | 6c | 1,122$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6017…2d39backed Yes | 1c | 1,065$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…17b7backed Yes | 10c | 1,048$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08d…2e58backed Yes | 5c | 1,046$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…aceebacked Yes | 15c | 1,019$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 19c | 954.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…d900backed Yes | 12c | 849.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 13c | 827.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 12c | 661.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 24c | 624.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148a…7e84backed Yes | 15c | 558.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed Yes | 15c | 536.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…825fbacked Yes | 7c | 533.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dc…37a7backed Yes | 23c | 472.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 16c | 412.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 37c | 401.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…78eabacked Yes | 8c | 384.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…2095backed Yes | 13c | 371.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 366.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…f7fdbacked Yes | 3c | 349.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed8…5bc6backed No | 80c | 349.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247b…6610backed Yes | 15c | 328.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…ae05backed Yes | 7c | 292.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +769.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e6…bc73backed Yes | 13c | 266.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…a121backed Yes | 9c | 259.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…c3f5backed Yes | 14c | 256.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Yes | 12c | 250.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…0f5ebacked Yes | 9c | 241.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f36…dc91backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…1f9bbacked Yes | 11c | 226.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f66…f2afbacked Yes | 11c | 221.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 23c | 219.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…69c9backed Yes | 12c | 213.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…578fbacked Yes | 11c | 208.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…6b8ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9313…9140backed Yes | 10c | 193.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…ca49backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 7c | 187.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 12c | 162.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 20c | 152.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…0b71backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 29c | 120.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…e739backed Yes | 17c | 119.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…5f5fbacked Yes | 10c | 110.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 31c | 110.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…cd83backed Yes | 10c | 102.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…5664backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…8f11backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa411…64aebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 73c | 93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…b0c9backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf28…4d47backed Yes | 17c | 58.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?this page
- Will BILLY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will DADDY be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will MOTHER be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
- Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?Yes won
- Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.