Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $260 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdf68f1ca702b7259d7df762acf77c5c85857c3ac872160fdcb863d023d5cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 76c | 447.17$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed Yes | 26c | 180$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 79c | 179.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…4db0backed No | 29c | 169.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 21c | 159.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…693bbacked Yes | 10c | 154.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 37c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 9c | 128.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…83e3backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 26c | 86.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 71c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…f36fbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…fd17backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…da3dbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…7d4abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc223…5f21backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…5b6bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $260 in November?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in November?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $208 in November?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in November?Yes won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in November?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in November?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $235 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Amazon reach $240 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in November?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.