AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman settle with his sister before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd60630231f38d18852939535807d1964d574dde99a7d2f21e2d598856bae5ae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,673$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 66c | 1,385$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.36 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 13c | 621.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 41c | 600$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 33c | 499.07$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 56c | 440$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 15c | 164.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…b17abacked Yes | 17c | 120.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 11c | 104.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 100.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…0d99backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 34c | 79.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 14c | 74.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe789…a7aebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4f7bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…a5f5backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…ceadbacked No | 67c | 36.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…f4bcbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…3f3cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…fef5backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.