Token Launches · resolved market
No Trump coin reaches $1b?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329b0bada35554e509f8d9e8d85a86ab70a787dc7f6f3fd06e4715c31f543823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 8c | 12,478$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 79c | 4,026$3,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 79c | 3,276$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.29 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 24c | 2,524$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…148bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,624$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 19c | 1,321$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 48c | 1,295$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 911.45$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.51 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 889.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 74c | 813.2$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 36c | 811$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 32c | 770.08$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…9894backed Yes | 70c | 694.55$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 36c | 611.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 74c | 585.39$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 68c | 530$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 40c | 476.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 388.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…73f3backed Yes | 65c | 334.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 22c | 295.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 64c | 280.25$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…6eb4backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…46cfbacked Yes | 51c | 220.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 74c | 189.96$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 71c | 158.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 53c | 111$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 32c | 101.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6c95backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…53abbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked Yes | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 65c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…48b8backed Yes | 79c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Trump coin reaches $1b?this page
- Will MAGA reach $1b first?No won
- Will TREMP reach $1b first?No won
- Will TRUMP reach $1b first?No won
- Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.