Token Launches · resolved market
Will TRUMP reach $1b first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x063068aae50b05d4ef5f631167d9622ee0903f5385bb2dedd84eeb3b55f4f4b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 21,987$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.6 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Yes | 13c | 7,953$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…9802backed Yes | 0c | 6,757$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 79c | 6,529$5,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 5,694$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.34 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 5,251$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +190.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 9c | 1,610$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,437$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…e2a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 1,257$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.64 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 955.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 12c | 954.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 8c | 939$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 877.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…8dd9backed Yes | 15c | 646.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…4be1backed Yes | 5c | 582.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…7d48backed Yes | 5c | 549.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 32c | 508.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 432$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 28c | 409.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 56c | 327$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…bf1abacked Yes | 26c | 288.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…38ccbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 14c | 158.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…6b35backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…f701backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…3737backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…08fabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…4becbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…0661backed Yes | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…010bbacked Yes | 70c | 53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…b6acbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4299…79c5backed Yes | 56c | 49.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…7623backed Yes | 27c | 43.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TRUMP reach $1b first?this page
- No Trump coin reaches $1b?Yes won
- Will MAGA reach $1b first?No won
- Will TREMP reach $1b first?No won
- Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.