Stocks · resolved market
Will Airbnb dip to $116 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b0f9d3231372deecb8c15d917f60c79d1131c593113994c30089b8779cda51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,081$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 1c | 3,385$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 51c | 689.94$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.34 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 68c | 550.51$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 44c | 194.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 183.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 50c | 181$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked No | 50c | 179.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 50c | 124.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 50c | 122.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 50c | 101.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…37a7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 88.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 81.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 50c | 72.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 59c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…465fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…1f69backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 78c | 44.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked No | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Airbnb dip to $116 in November?this page
- Will Airbnb dip to $104 in November?No won
- Will Airbnb dip to $110 in November?No won
- Will Airbnb dip to $120 in November?Yes won
- Will Airbnb dip to $124 in November?Yes won
- Will Airbnb reach $128 in November?No won
- Will Airbnb reach $136 in November?No won
- Will Airbnb reach $150 in November?No won
- Will Airbnb reach $168 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.