Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed abolished in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda14c96f35b4169dbba00160a3069a9017ad15a723c639f13e4cd7089049c7f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $697,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 6,586$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,217$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,986$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,746$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…0a13backed Yes | 3c | 1,713$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,667$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…fe42backed Yes | 1c | 1,310$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,046$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 1c | 942.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…4f37backed Yes | 3c | 745.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 2c | 555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 4c | 554.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…81a4backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…657bbacked Yes | 5c | 373.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb117…b35fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…d24dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.