Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e3c07513f3ff6446476d8c3ef36866e63c604d14182c05b77ed7b51c0485c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,644$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 33c | 894.02$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.97 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 53c | 842.59$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 42c | 827.08$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.75 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 50c | 806.34$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.52 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 46c | 801.1$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.62 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed Yes | 20c | 699.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.05 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…465abacked Yes | 19c | 655.92$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 58c | 642.61$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.02 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 9c | 508.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 21c | 374.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.01 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 75c | 287.64$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.45 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 241.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 6c | 239.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 190.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 7c | 156.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 76c | 150.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 25c | 130.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 107.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 46c | 101.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 96.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 34c | 71.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 51c | 39.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 34.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…509fbacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…d617backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of November?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of November?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.