Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17cc7f181ba7911e94f063681d652ef36aeb2311076c682260daf52ebef9133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 15c | 11,929$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.63 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 54c | 775.03$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.82 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 6c | 554$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.23 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 46c | 422.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.41 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 51c | 305.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 28c | 283.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 71c | 203.31$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 183.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.62 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 180.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 48c | 180.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 48c | 141$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 12c | 114.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…15f9backed Yes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 39c | 86.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…3cedbacked No | 32c | 74.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 24c | 60.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 50c | 48.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 45.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of November?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of November?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of November?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.