Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $800 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd966475cfbf312f57fbd2266fcb16ebbd87d2da4713e6ab72919febb226bd302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 1c | 48,864$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.64 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 15,647$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 20c | 9,200$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.79 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9749…efcbbacked Yes | 13c | 2,357$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…e84bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,336$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…7de3backed Yes | 13c | 2,328$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa155…f843backed Yes | 13c | 2,322$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…3233backed Yes | 13c | 2,314$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…db18backed Yes | 13c | 2,293$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…4a0dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,273$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8f…69b7backed Yes | 13c | 2,197$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…5447backed No | 80c | 1,059$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…ea63backed No | 80c | 1,035$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…4cf7backed Yes | 20c | 1,016$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…ec81backed No | 80c | 1,006$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…afbcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,002$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…2ccebacked Yes | 20c | 982.2$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…8f9fbacked Yes | 16c | 905.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 31c | 600$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 32c | 580.43$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 23c | 370.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…f09ebacked No | 76c | 360.96$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 24c | 321.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Yes | 21c | 233.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed No | 69c | 208.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…0a71backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…9e39backed No | 77c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 33c | 140.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…020abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 88.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 26c | 77.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked No | 73c | 26.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…e05cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $800 in November?this page
- Will BNB reach $1200 in November?No won
- Will BNB reach $1400 in November?No won
- Will BNB reach $1600 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.