Middle East · resolved market
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8415f32702f1555a74a161d37ddc6b080306d77ed3ca85fa6542dd84741bba3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 13c | 13,753$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.28 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Yes | 9c | 10,452$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 13c | 8,355$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 7,256$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 7c | 5,574$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 5c | 5,330$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 4,765$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 3,464$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 28c | 2,899$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.6 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,166$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 9c | 1,942$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,688$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,510$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 73c | 1,444$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.47 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,239$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6175…34f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,004$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 926.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…ce9bbacked Yes | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 743.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 12c | 601.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 19c | 510.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 6c | 471.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 6c | 445.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 5c | 398.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 76c | 350.86$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 335.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 42c | 325$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390f…9a7fbacked Yes | 4c | 250.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed No | 77c | 217.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 5c | 208.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…2817backed No | 74c | 132.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…a781backed No | 70c | 129.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…b6bbbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 30c | 104.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…7f57backed Yes | 16c | 91.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…1a77backed No | 73c | 68.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 30c | 58.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…19c0backed No | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.