Macro Indicators · resolved market
US stagflation in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48ddb5a277d44b7df44732474088a8db9834942b9d18405fc8617e42ce8019f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,029$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked No | 78c | 2,712$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,414$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 2,032$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…4c13backed Yes | 13c | 1,905$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 1,801$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.37 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 8c | 1,740$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,686$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,407$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 79c | 1,368$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,064$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 24c | 834.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 590$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 77c | 553.87$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 482.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 21c | 481.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…89fdbacked Yes | 10c | 418.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…0afabacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 20c | 340$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes | 9c | 299.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 80c | 216.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 216.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 21c | 184.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 156.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6c…5cb4backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 148.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242b…9d88backed Yes | 11c | 141.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked No | 77c | 134.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…6d33backed Yes | 29c | 129.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…b1f3backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 23c | 74.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 20c | 73.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…2f98backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc0…c03ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…31fbbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8589…af65backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed No | 74c | 39.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ea31backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.