Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a1d1ad31c0fe85b31e1655350e5ff54fc18033c1ac5ed15ebd2fa7eba9f55c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $330,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 2c | 52,258$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 10c | 20,575$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed Yes | 0c | 20,007$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 0c | 14,335$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 12,642$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.45 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…f309backed Yes | 1c | 4,573$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 11c | 4,165$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…eddfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 1c | 3,698$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 0c | 3,308$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 16c | 3,026$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.05 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 14c | 2,994$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…b627backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…3db0backed Yes | 2c | 1,445$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes | 8c | 1,226$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 22c | 1,131$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 20c | 983.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…2817backed Yes | 16c | 796.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 18c | 794.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 17c | 774.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 761.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 11c | 738.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…3e81backed Yes | 2c | 736.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 13c | 675.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 667.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 22c | 661.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 653.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 10c | 610$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 7c | 550.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 545.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 513.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed Yes | 16c | 512.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 511$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 8c | 474.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 423$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…b5a0backed Yes | 9c | 401.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 380.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 371$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 19c | 325.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…b1babacked Yes | 18c | 268.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 18c | 227.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…7542backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 17c | 180.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 175.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 78c | 175$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…6364backed Yes | 19c | 173.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 9c | 155.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…5638backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 11c | 121.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…727ebacked Yes | 17c | 119.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked No | 78c | 100.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…b204backed Yes | 14c | 97.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…3967backed Yes | 17c | 94.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…9b50backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 79c | 35.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…0022backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.