TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b9e…6838backed Yes54c2,506$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes43c1,662$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.428836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No52c1,571$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.87135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No57c1,101$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.262832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes45c1,096$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.068330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-76.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes44c769.71$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.439231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No57c707.18$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.23754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes45c662.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No58c631.44$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.558334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c594.62$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No56c576.63$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12520049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes43c460.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.86937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No53c433.97$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.972626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes47c430.48$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.331921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes45c426.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.97416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ecdebacked Yes48c419.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes50c405.84$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes30c369$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.355440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked Yes40c328.42$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No53c301.75$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.432751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes40c299.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3417821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No60c290$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9334651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No55c288.47$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.193240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes41c280$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.664134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5d8…521dbacked Yes45c277.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-68.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ba…ccb5backed Yes41c218.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes45c213.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No55c210.12$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes45c210$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0323751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed No54c203.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.661533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No53c202.35$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.83240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No59c199.94$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.886434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c196.8$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No58c194$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.043372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No54c176$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9610244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75a5…8e75backed Yes49c173.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcead…31a3backed Yes44c169$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No55c162.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.922445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaae2…f508backed Yes48c156.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1d…58b7backed Yes47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddf9…165bbacked No53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ff…a578backed No56c145$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc77c…6cd6backed No56c142.37$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d0…caaabacked Yes48c135.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c127.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes47c126.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-74.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes25c125.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.46456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff2…ab7cbacked Yes48c123$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d0…4dfdbacked No52c123$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes41c121.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes41c121.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.943953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1966…214abacked Yes48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+163.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x158f…a432backed No52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8536…7038backed Yes43c116.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a34…7bcabacked No55c112.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-83.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No56c105.31$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3923041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfef…bafbbacked Yes47c100.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x065c…dab1backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe156…86bdbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca8…bfb2backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-79.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0de4…2d29backed Yes47c96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.122630.8%8 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d81…5437backed No55c91.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c90.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3277…5088backed Yes48c90$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9b…abb4backed No52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes39c89.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401520%3 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe797…dbbdbacked No53c82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb27b…f4adbacked No53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e1…6107backed No56c72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a6…a9e2backed Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb4…74a9backed No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No62c67.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes43c67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.594540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes47c66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.021546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dae…07e3backed No55c63.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c98…2405backed No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.043571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ed…876bbacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c2b…61c6backed No56c59.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…e522backed No56c58.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135a…4c1fbacked Yes47c58.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed No54c55.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.712560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed Yes40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ae0…753ebacked No57c51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa18…435bbacked No56c50.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba20…738fbacked No56c49.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…9e5dbacked Yes46c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…402fbacked Yes25c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9626541.9%111 W · 154 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99b7…359cbacked Yes69c43.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0262…23ddbacked Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.