Movies · resolved market
Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84be5518b2984622edd2f6ddb4ef1adbae60a8fae7ce7434729ebafd6073e228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 7c | 2,284$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 25c | 1,751$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 12c | 864.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.32 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 23c | 744.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.11 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 25c | 629.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.92 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 19c | 615.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.69 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 438$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.69 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 26c | 365.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 73c | 337.67$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.83 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 34c | 330$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed No | 80c | 321$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 79c | 306.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.28 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed No | 73c | 286.08$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 29c | 266.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.31 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 16c | 248$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.69 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 25c | 216.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 68c | 208.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 69c | 204.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 75c | 169.81$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6f…4c79backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…38a9backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 24c | 144$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 68c | 129.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237d…fe0ebacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 118.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 33c | 105.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 20c | 105.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…553cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…c86dbacked Yes | 32c | 94.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb46…d89bbacked No | 69c | 89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…4bf0backed Yes | 31c | 88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +136%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa385…0691backed Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 29c | 62.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…af49backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…7c5cbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5826…2a6abacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…5a54backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c4…3cf1backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…0877backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…3c94backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f3…1c9ebacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…a322backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 27c | 39.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…2efabacked Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…3fabbacked Yes | 29c | 34.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…a563backed Yes | 31c | 34.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…bd3fbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…300cbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…30ebbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…a09dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…23f6backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1303…5da4backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…8e9cbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a1…5a98backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8311backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…e5fdbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…1249backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…9211backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…62eebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…45e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6c6bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7237…227dbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…ed35backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…f067backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Death by Numbers" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Instruments of a Beating Heart" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.