Movies · resolved market
Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af30ea5d787997c95a9c4bacb44a8a573e003c4ccd54ffae38969371229a8e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad16…e610backed Yes | 25c | 92,000$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…bb5ebacked No | 75c | 91,994$68,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,998.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 25c | 1,143$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 75c | 795$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.94 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 620.94$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.32 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 26c | 550$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed Yes | 25c | 485.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes | 24c | 423.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…d7d9backed Yes | 21c | 396.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked Yes | 26c | 389$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 22c | 357$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed No | 74c | 345$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 328.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 18c | 307.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 78c | 246$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 76c | 226.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 71c | 213.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 197.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 20c | 187.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 80c | 184.52$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 162$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 74c | 151.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 19c | 134.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 24c | 133.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 80c | 119.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…a2cebacked Yes | 24c | 117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…b4debacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 75c | 84.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 79.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…2e3dbacked No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 76c | 71.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd575…e34fbacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…e08fbacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 26c | 62.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…2093backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Yes | 18c | 56.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…f93abacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…5b19backed Yes | 25c | 48.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…f3c1backed Yes | 25c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9607backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…7858backed Yes | 26c | 42.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…2efebacked No | 75c | 41.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…032cbacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…b24ebacked No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 77c | 33.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…a5a1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…a863backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…8702backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…0b9dbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…eb22backed No | 79c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3d52backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…721abacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0381…cbdfbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…d703backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…6a53backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…12c3backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…a585backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…e12fbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…bab5backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5477…8000backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Death by Numbers" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Instruments of a Beating Heart" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.