Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2caed8b4d41efbe49d78410baddf8188fa234a99230392f93e0ab4c6b3722511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 71c | 33,294$23,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,609.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 76c | 15,853$12,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,815 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 19c | 5,421$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.16 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 28c | 4,519$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.49 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 62c | 4,490$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.3 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 54c | 4,197$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.54 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 59c | 3,987$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.42 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 28c | 3,794$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.87 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 12c | 3,712$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.76 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 30c | 3,599$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed No | 41c | 3,102$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 64c | 3,083$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.14 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 31c | 3,000$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 69c | 2,630$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 22c | 2,592$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.27 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 30c | 2,400$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.94 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 80c | 2,365$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.17 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 30c | 2,353$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 37c | 2,054$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,035$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.02 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 71c | 2,007$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 29c | 1,954$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 61c | 1,917$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.65 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 29c | 1,828$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.57 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 1,798$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 27c | 1,600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,588$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Yes | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 32c | 1,464$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.3 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 69c | 1,298$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 30c | 1,283$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.67 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 28c | 1,255$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 33c | 1,215$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 58c | 1,104$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 50c | 999.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed Yes | 74c | 982.43$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 26c | 980$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 8c | 901$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.12 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 55c | 826.01$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.13 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…32ecbacked Yes | 70c | 713.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 28c | 707.2$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.81 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 698.26$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed No | 34c | 697.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.32 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…599cbacked Yes | 73c | 692.06$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 17c | 676.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.05 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 68c | 660.95$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 72c | 622.07$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 9c | 620$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 70c | 617.13$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 616$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.08 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 68c | 599.94$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 6c | 593.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 11c | 583.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 36c | 574.01$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 28c | 499.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 449.18$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 41c | 446.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d8…521dbacked No | 29c | 431.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 29c | 423.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 56c | 394.05$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 47c | 368.34$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.34 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 71c | 368$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 56c | 342.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 9c | 339.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.29 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 27c | 330.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed No | 38c | 312.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Yes | 10c | 310$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 10c | 299.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 58c | 297.84$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed No | 34c | 290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 30c | 277.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed Yes | 72c | 276.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 54c | 247.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 48c | 245.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 52c | 243.31$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 73c | 242.56$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 34c | 238.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ccb5backed No | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed No | 20c | 210.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 73c | 207.52$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 39c | 206.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 63c | 201$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 71c | 200.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 66c | 195.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 30c | 183$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 62c | 176.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 76c | 176$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…25b8backed Yes | 70c | 170$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 33c | 168.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…359cbacked Yes | 75c | 160.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 46c | 160$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?this page
- Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?No won
- Will Coralie Fargeat win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Substance"?No won
- Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"?No won
- Will James Mangold win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "A Complete Unknown"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.