Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 145.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11bf097ccc82abebac51b21a36d0149a14a3257183b0cfef309c835a8a5fef62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 50c | 7,818$3,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,913.26 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 50c | 2,692$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.87 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Under | 50c | 1,024$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.7 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 48c | 1,018$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 824.06$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.74 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 50c | 759.31$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.66 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 49c | 662.82$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.11 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 53c | 398$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 49c | 384.46$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 55c | 360.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 51c | 311.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 267.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 237.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 51c | 221.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Under | 49c | 209.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 49c | 198.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 105.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 34c | 99.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 61c | 91.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 52c | 82.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Over | 48c | 75.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 49c | 51.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 49c | 49.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 51c | 32.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…fb0dbacked Over | 48c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.43per pick | 56cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 145.5this page
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-6.5)Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-7.5)Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-8.5)Incarnate Word Cardinals won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word CardinalsStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 142.5Over won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 143.5Over won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 144.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.