Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e914538fd3650f852e7278ac275138a687854f861bc39a2b0f778282504cce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksof Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Incarnate Word Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 54c | 6,473$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.51 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 2,010$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.6 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 1,889$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.01 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 723.65$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.88 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 409.45$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.35 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 218.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 54c | 161.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 45c | 147.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 55c | 144.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 116.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 95.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 64.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 54c | 53.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-7.5)Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-8.5)Incarnate Word Cardinals won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word CardinalsStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 142.5Over won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 143.5Over won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 144.5Under won
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Incarnate Word Cardinals: O/U 145.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.