TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Incarnate Word Cardinalsof Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Incarnate Word Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,360 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks46c736.17$339 inLost-$339.462,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals53c658.24$347 inWon+$311.345,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks52c238.37$124 inLost-$123.9516350.9%83 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals48c150$72 inWon+$7893941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Incarnate Word Cardinals54c115.55$62 inWon+$53.152,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Incarnate Word Cardinals52c82.38$43 inWon+$39.5429845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals54c63.24$34 inWon+$29.0950548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals52c54.52$28 inWon+$26.1722544.9%101 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks46c31.48$14 inLost-$14.4814143.3%61 W · 80 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals54c31.21$17 inWon+$14.3657248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x500e…0faabacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks53c29.74$16 inLost-$15.762250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Incarnate Word Cardinals54c18.52$10 inWon+$8.5282846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.